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Technical Analysis Dilemmas- Some Contemporary Thoughts

Plane photo

Plane photo

I would like to think that by now I am an intermediate level MT4 user. And although I read 20+ books on technical analysis, I still feel like a child when I open the platform from my broker and I browse through the tons of indicators showed there.
Of course, we are all looking for the Holy Grail of the technical analsysis – that single one indicator which, used constantly, produces permanent profits. It doesn’t matter how big the profits are, if they are constant they will provide huge profits eventually through the magic power of compounding.Read More »Technical Analysis Dilemmas- Some Contemporary Thoughts

A Book Review – “Harmonic Trading – Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets” – volume 1 by Scott M. Carney

There are various opinion currents in the technical analysis. One of the recent ones appeals to the natural order of the markets and to uncovering patterns which appear from time to time. This approach to technical analysis does not try to find models where there is none. Rather the natural order trading is trying to catch patterns as they emerge and ride them for the benefit of the trader. These things said, “Harmonic Trading – Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets” is a book which uncovers several such patterns for the benefit of the trader.

Scott Carney, founder and president of a company called (surprise surprise) “Harmonic Trading”, has studied quite a long time these patterns. His experience started with the Fibonacci approach, a trading method which uses the Fibonacci numbers to predict the most probable incoming price levels. This is a probabilistic approach and, like all the methods based on probabilities, it chases patterns where over the long term you are more likely to offset losses with your gains (rather than the other way around). Read More »A Book Review – “Harmonic Trading – Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets” – volume 1 by Scott M. Carney

What Means the Goldman Sachs Fraud Charge for Other Banking Stocks?

I think I said this before, here on banking is a trust business. And when the trust is lost, you can bet that half of your clients are almost gone for the emergency exit.

The reason for this is quite simple – in banking a customer buys your ability to deliver a promise. He/she wants your financing for the long term (mostly desirable for the seller), your ability to generate revenue for the customer, your superior investment yields.  It is all about the money.

In their book “The Trusted Advisor”, the Harvard professors who authored it argued that a counselor of any king must strive in essence to do 2 things:Read More »What Means the Goldman Sachs Fraud Charge for Other Banking Stocks?

Adventures of a Trader in the Forex Land (4) – About Japan and Big Mistakes

I tried last week to trade yen against the news. I thought that the news release on China (that exports are much stronger than expected) will actually move the yen a bit upwards versus other currencies, then the Japan currency will resume its decline. In brief, I was arguing that the yen appreciation will last very short. Read More »Adventures of a Trader in the Forex Land (4) – About Japan and Big Mistakes

Banks, Financial Crisis and Capitalism

I was reading recently an article regarding the imminent bankrupcy of the emerging markets (especially the ones from Eastern Europe). The author said in his investment blog that banks are now forcing up the interest rates in those countries. The increase in the interest rates would lead to a wave of personal bankrupcies in those markets, allowing the foreign investors to buy the local assets (especially the real estate assets from those emerging markets) very cheap. The scenario would be unfolding as we speak, whilst the peak of the crisis in the Eastewrn Europe should arrive somewhere in the middle of 2010.
The fallacies of this story are many. I will not enter into the details of the cosnpiration theory which seems to hide behind this pessimistic approach to the Eastern Europe economies. I will also not discuss here the fact that it is hard for the big banks to cooperate among them. Or the bank cooperating with the big investment funds, their competitors, would be a highly unlike – ier scenario. I will just mention the recent lessons that Dubai and Greece, two sovereign countries, whose recent developments are linked tot tourism and real estate investmentst, taught us.Read More »Banks, Financial Crisis and Capitalism

The Adventures of a Trader in the Forex Land (2)

currencies-doitinvest.comWelcome back to my forex trading blog. Or, as one famous trader named his investing book, welcome back to my trading room:))
A few words on the yesterday’s forex blog trade placed. I mentioned that I placed a trade on GBP/JPY by purchasing 0.5 lots at 146.56 on the Nov 25th. Since I bought 0.5 lots, I was expecting the currencies cross exchange rate to increase. The take profit order was placed at 147. Unfortunately for me, I did not place any stop loss. Fortunately for me, the trade was placed on a demo account, which made me bear no losses.Read More »The Adventures of a Trader in the Forex Land (2)

Oil Prices Creep Back

There is a lot of debate whether the oil will come back or not to the levels from 2008 (mostly May and June levels, where it reached a peak of $140/barrel. Since then, it continued to drop until February 2009, since it started again to grow. This time, in a much slower manner.

It is true that the recent economical news are slightly better than the previous ones. The US GDP has decreased in quarter 3within the economists expectations. The important word here is “decreased”. And the S&P 500 companies have seen a small recovery. Yet, I think we are several months from the economic recovery whcih could turn recession into a growth trend.

And of course, there is a debate of whether oil prices will anticipate these oil price increases or whether it will go down further, before it picks up.Read More »Oil Prices Creep Back