US default

Incoming Global Status-quo Meltdown – Investing Alert

My fellow investing folks, we are in for a tough ride again. The markets are dropping all over the world with 3 to5%, led by banks and commodities. And all of these have happened only during one week.
What was behind it? Apparently, all the press hauls about Eurozone emergency bail-outs – the banks are close to a liquidity crisis again since they have less revenues from the Italy and Greece (and other European) bonds. And with the deposits fees charged by NY Mellon, with Japan trying to avoid the yen appreciation and the Turkish Central Bank dropping the reference rate, it seems that nobody wants hot money anymore in their country.
Apparently. The signs are (as one Financial Times columnist – Gillian Tett’s insight article – put it in today’s newspaper) that we are actually facing once more a confidence crisis. It seems that everybody is pulling out of the stock market and of the volatile areas of investments and running for safety. The problem is similar to the global meltdown we experienced in the US crisis – the safety areas are limited and they can only absorb so much of the hot money floating around. The safety refuges of today are the gold (already up to 1,640 USD or so), the swiss franc, the yen and a couple of other places unknown to the wide public. All of these were already crowded because of the prolonged crisis – and now they are massively overcrowded. I think this lead accidentally to over-pricing of those assets – and in turn to a loss of confidence in the financial areas of refuge.Read More »Incoming Global Status-quo Meltdown – Investing Alert

Greatest Crisis Ever – US Debt Default?

If you thought that Greece was a major crisis, look again. Across the ocean, in the economy once considered the engine of the world, the Republicans are playing a waiting game while the world holds its breath. United States, once sacrosanct in terms of budget, my default on its debt. There are only 4 days left until the unthinkable can happen: Congress will not approve the new budget deficit and US will enter into default.
Neither FED, not Treasury commented on what would happen if an agreement is not reached and pushed through the Congress. United States had always in the past a huge deficit (as of June it reached -9.1% of the GDP in the budget balance deficit). Yet, a compromise has always been agreed mutually and the deficit was rolled over. These days, because of a political stand still, this might not happen once more. Read More »Greatest Crisis Ever – US Debt Default?